REPUBLIC OF NAMIBIA

MINISTRY OF WORKS TRANSPORT & COMMUNICATION

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE DIVISION

NAMIBIA RAINY SEASON OUTLOOK FOR OCTOBER TO DECEMBER 2008 AND JANUARY TO MARCH 2009

Highlights: The outlook for Namibia for the period October to December (OND) 2008 indicates normal to below normal rainfall over the bulk of the country (Region 1), and region 2 can expect normal to above normal rainfall. The main part of the rainy season January to March 2009 indicates normal to above normal rainfall over the northern eastern half of Namibia (regions 1 and 2) and normal to below normal over the southern western parts of the country (Region 3).

SUMMARY: Major parts of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region will have an increase chance of receiving normal to above normal rainfall during the period October-December (OND) 2008. However, parts of Namibia, southwestern and extreme north eastern Zambia, western Zimbabwe, bulk of Botswana, South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland, northern parts of Malawi, greater part of Angola, bulk of Tanzania and southern half of Madagascar have an increases chance of receiving normal to below normal rainfall during the period OND. In the second half of the season, January-March (JFM) 2009, most parts of SADC will receive normal to below normal rainfall. However, greater part of the central and eastern half of the region and the western parts of Angola have an increase chance of receiving normal to above normal rainfall during the period JFM.

This is a preliminary outlook and the update is due at the end of September 2008. The users are advised to contact the Namibia Meteorological Service for more information.

FIGURE CAPTION

It is emphasized that boundaries between regions should be considered as transition areas. Forecast information is provided only for countries that comprise the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) region. The numbers for each region indicate the probabilities of rainfall in each of the three categories: below-normal, normal and above-normal. The top number indicates the probability of rainfall occurring in the above-normal category, the middle number is for normal, and the bottom number is for below-normal. For example in the case Figure 1, for Region 1, there is a 25% probability of rainfall occurring in the above-normal category; a 40% probability in the normal category; and 35% probability in the below-normal category. The total of the three categories used in the probabilities is always equal to 100%.