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High Seas Forecasts

20/08/2020

 

 

AREA 1:

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FORECAST VALID FROM 201000 to 211000 UTC:

 

WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M.

 

NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS.

INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5.

WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER.

THESE ESTIMATES OF WINDS AND WAVES DO NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE ENHANCING EFFECTS OF THE AGULHAS CURRENT OFF THE SOUTH AFRICAN EAST COAST.

 

GALE FORCE WARNINGS:

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1. CAPE EAST: NW 35 in the south-east from mid-period and SW to W

35 in the southern parts towards the end of the period.

2. MARION FORTIES EAST: W to SW 35 in places in the west from mid-period.

 

SYNOPTIC CHART: 06:00Z

=======================

High 1030 hPa 33s06w.

Low 966 hPa 57s28e.

 

1. Cold front: 35s19e 40s29e 45s36e 50s36s 55s37e into 57s28e.

 

AREA FORECAST

=============

ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W):

WIND : SE 10 to 15 reaching 20 in the south at times.

VIS : Good.

SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south, S to SE swell.

 

ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/WEST COAST):

WIND : S to SE 10 to 15 but SW to W 05 to 10 in the east.

VIS : Good but poor in fog in the east at times.

SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south-west for the first half of the period, S to

SE swell.

 

ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W):

WIND : E to SE 15 to 25 but E to NE 05 to 10 in the south. It will

become NW 10 to 15 in the extreme south-west from mid-period.

VIS : Good.

SEA STATE: 3.0m in places in the north and north-east, S to SE swell.

 

TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST):

WIND : SE 15 to 25, but variable 05 in the extreme north-east.

It will become E to NE 05 to 10 in the south-west from

mid-period.

VIS : Good.

SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m, except in the south-west and north-east, S to SE

swell.

 

TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W):

WIND : Anticyclonic 05 to 10 in the north-east for the first half of

the period, otherwise NW 15 to 25 reaching 30 in the south

from mid-period.

VIS : Good, becoming moderate in rain in the south-west from mid-

period.

SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the south-west spreading to the entire southern

half of the area by mid-period, while reaching 4.5 to 5.0m in

the south-west, W to SW swell.

 

CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E):

WIND : SW 15 to 25 in the south-east at first, otherwise variable

05 to 10, but S to SE 10 to 20 in the north. It will become

NW 15 to 25 in the south from mid-period reaching 30 in the

extreme south towards the end of the period.

VIS : Moderate in showers and rain in the south-east at first,

otherwise good.

SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the south, reaching 4.0 to 5.0m in the south-

east, SW swell.

 

CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E):

WIND : NW 20 to 30 in the east reaching 35 in the south-east from

mid-period, otherwise SW to W 20 to 30 reaching 35 in the

southern parts towards the end of the period. It will become N

to NW 10 to 20 in the extreme west towards the end of the

period reaching 25 in the south-west.

VIS : Moderate in showers and rain in the western and central parts

spreading to the eastern parts by mid-period while clearing

from the west, otherwise good.

SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.0m reaching 5.0 to 6.0m in places in the east for the

first half of the period and in the south-west from mid-

period spreading to rest of the southern parts by end of the

period, SW swell.

 

DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):

WIND : SW to W 10 to 15 reaching 20 to 25 in the south but variable

05 to 10 in the north-west.

VIS : Good, but moderate in rain showers in the north-east. It will

become moderate in showers and rain in the south-west from

mid-period.

SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, reaching 4.5 to 5.0m in the south and south-east

for the first half of the period, SW swell.

 

MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL:

WIND : S to SE 15 to 20 but S to SW 20 to 25 in the east.

VIS : Moderate in light showers and rain in the west for

the first half of the period, otherwise good.

SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the central and southern parts, SW swell.

 

MADAGASCAR EAST:

WIND : N to NE 05 to 10 in the south, otherwise E to SE 10 to 15

reaching 20 to 25 in the north. It will become E to SE 10 to

15 in the extreme south-west from mid-period.

VIS : Good, but moderate in showers in the extreme south-west and

north.

SEA STATE: 3.0m in the north, SE swell, but 3.0 to 3.5m in the south-west

from mid-period with SW swell.

 

MARION FORTIES EAST (40s/50s, 35e/50e):

WIND : W to NW 20 to 30 in the east for the first half of the period,

otherwise W to SW 20 to 30 reaching 35 in places in the west

from mid-period.

VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and rain but snow showers in the

south.

SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m reaching 5.0m in the east at first and 5.0 to 6.0m

in the western parts from mid-period but 7.0m in the extreme

west at the end of the period, SW swell.

 

AREA 2:

=======

MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION

ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN)

 

DATE: 20/08/20 AT 0500UTC

 

AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40%

STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE.).

 

PART 1: WARNING :

 

- STRONG GALE FORCE 9 ONGOING OVER WAM.

- GALE FORCE 8 ONGOING OVER CRO AND EXPECTED ALL OVER AREAS.

 

PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSYS, 20/08/20 AT 0000 UTC :

 

- HIGH 1026 HPA NEAR 32S/72E, SLOW-MOVING.

- LOW 980 HPA NEAR 46S/53E ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE: COLD FRONT

(CF) AXIS 46S/53E, 42S/57E, 29S/50E AND WARM FRONT (WF) AXIS 46S/53E,

45S/61E, 41S/66E, BOTH OF THEM MOVING EASTWARD 25/30 KT.

 

PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 20/08/20 AT 0600 UTC TO 21/08/20

AT 0600UTC :

 

WAM (30S/40S,50E/65E) :

 

RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER CF. SEVERE GUSTS AHEAD THE FRONT.

WIND: N TO NW 6/7, LOCALLY 8 AHEAD THE FRONT, BACKING WESTERLY 5 TO 7

BEHIND, THEN DECREASING 4/5 AT THE END OVER WESTERN AREA.

SEA: ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH, LOCALLY HIGH DUE TO THE FRONT. HEAVY

WESTERLY SWELL.

VISI: VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATIONS.

 

AMS (30S/40S,65E/80E) :

 

RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER CF. SEVERE GUSTS AHEAD THE FRONT.

WIND: ANTICLOCKWISE 3 TO 5 AT THE BEGINNING, SETTING UP AND

INCREASING N TONW 6/7 AHEAD THE FRONT, THEN BACKING WESTERLY 5 TO 7,

LOCALLY 8FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND CF.

SEA: ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH BECOMING MODERATE OVER NORTHERN AREA AT THE

END. MODERATE TO HEVAY SW SWELL AT THE BEGINNING, THEN ARRIVAL OF A

NEW MODERATE WESTERLY SWELL.

VISI: POOR TO VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATIONS.

 

CRO (40S/50S,50E/65E) :

 

RAIN/SNOW AND FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER CF. SEVERE GUSTS AHEAD THE FRONT.

WIND: CLOCKWISE 6 TO 8 SETTING UP WESTERLY 5/6 BEHIND THE FRONT. AT

THE END OVER WESTERN AREA, CLOCKWISE WIND 6/7 ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW

DISTURBANCE.

SEA: ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. MODERATE TO HEAVY CLOCKWISE SWELL AND HIGH

NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SEA DUE TI THE FRONT.

VISI: VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATIONS.

 

KER (40S/50S,65E/80E) :

 

RAIN/SNOW AND FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER CF. SEVERE GUSTS AHEAD THE FRONT.

WIND: W 4/5, INCREASING N TO NW 6/7 AHEAD THE FRONT, BECOMING

CLOCKWISE 6 TO 8 BEHIND CF.

SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH, LOCALLY HIGH AT THE END OVER WESTERN AREA.

HEAVY WESTERLY SWELL.

VISI: VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATIONS.